Monday, October 6, 2008

If investing is a highway . . .

I'm gonna park it like it's ho-o-ot.

On Saturday, I had some time in the car, so I listened to the radio. When I listen to the radio, I only listen to our local NPR affiliate, KRCC. It so happened that This American Life was on. They were helpfully parsing the economic crisis. (Anyone want to second my observation that the word "crisis" comes from the Greek word meaning "judgment, under judgment"?) You can listen here.

My travel took me on the highway, shortly after I heard how these investment firms engaged in frenzied "credit default swaps" with hedging and not regulating. Then I started to get that sick, disappointed feeling as I watched drivers around me whip into the right lane to get ahead, then whip back into the left lane when they realized that no cars were in the right lane for a reason. And it clicked. I had had that feeling moments before as I listened to the description of people whipping into the other lane to gain a few bucks, then whipping back when they realized it wasn't going to work out, then gunning it when they had a few yards, then cutting somebody off, all to get a little bit ahead.

I myself engage in a bit of lane changing, depending on my mood. But I don't think I ever get manic about it. Once I realize what I'm doing, I ground myself to the right lane for a bit, if for no other reason than to give up more than the little bit of ground I gained with less than sane driving.

I don't recommend that in financial markets, but it turns out that we've lost 20% of our initial investment anyway. To stay in? To not stay in? I kind of want to buoy the markets with our paltry investment, by not pulling it out. It's in there for the long term anyway, so why pull it out? Maybe the markets will recover. Maybe we'll make our "killing" someday.

Now there's exactly the problem. On another vehicular foray this weekend, I listened to the Thomas Jefferson Hour. Clay Jenkinson represents Jefferson with some very strong language about those shystery, gambling followers of Alexander Hamilton. Never worked an honest day in their life. They're gambling, merely trying to create false demand to rip off the honest people who fall into the economic wrangling at the wrong time.

I've been conflicted about stock markets and mutual funds for a while, but these reflective times have cemented a desire for me to be more agrarian, keep a little money in CDs or some such non-gambling instrument to keep pace with inflation. The more I see, the more I realize that getting ahead involves either frugality or luck. Frugality's a sure thing that steals from no one. Luck is . . . well, luck, and it means that someone else is unlucky. The money that's rotting away in mutual funds right now was gained by frugality, and it's now being lost by a certain inverse of luck. I don't feel bitter about it; I saw it coming. I do wonder if it's time to cut losses and pull out, or if we should just leave it in. I imagine we'll leave it in and hope for a modest return over the next couple of decades.

This big mess does make me want to pull the car off at the next exit and take a bike or a horse or travel by foot. Some good ol' honest conveyance.

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